Aloha!
Here are the July 2019 (June Data) Oahu Hawaii Real Estate housing statistics courtesy of the Honolulu Board of Realtors – Hawaii Housing Stats, July 2019. In 2018 the housing market on Oahu continued to break median sales price records on a monthly basis, compared to the previous year, with overall prices having increased on a monthly basis for both homes and condos (the notable exception would be the luxury home market). However, in 2019 (actually starting in Dec last year) we have seen price increases slow down to the point where in 3 months so far this year, prices actually decreased. Furthermore, closed sales have fallen by double digits compare to June last year. Just after a long term real estate cycle peaks the first indicator is a decrease in sales of homes – currently happening – followed by an increase in inventories which has been happening in the last several months. Once that continues, prices inevitably start to decrease and now we have seen that occur 3 months this year. However, inventories will need to increase more before we see prices consistently flatten. Furthemore, with the US expanding economy (though slowing down now) it could take until the end of 2020 before the US economy goes into a recession and the real estate market to follow suit (I have predicted the next recession will be a mild one). Though interest rates are still historically low, they have now stopped increasing for the foreseeable future with the Fed stopping hikes in the Fed Funds Rate (it seems Quantitative Tightening will now slow or stop as well). With a continued shortage of median housing on Oahu, pressure on the upper price range condo market (as an alternative to single family homes) will most definitely continue. As for this months detailed stats we have, in summary:
Overall Oahu Real Estate Sales have decreased by -10.4% and -13.5% in June respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to the same month last year. The YTD (Year-To-Date) data shows an overall sales decrease of -3.7% and -8.8% respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to last year. The overall combined trend for the year thus far is trending downwards for both homes and condos (the downward trend for homes has become statistically significant – we will continue to monitor and update you accordingly).
Median Oahu Real Estate Prices have increased modestly by 2.3% and 3% respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to the same month last year while YTD median prices have decreased by -.5% and -1.4% respectively for Single Family Homes condos. The overall trend is still upward but starting to flatten (the notable exception would be the Hawaii luxury homes areas where inventories rose above 16 months – extreme buyers’ market).
Oahu Real Estate DOM (Days on Market) have increased from 16 to 18 days for Single Family Homes compared to last year. For Condos DOMs increased significantly by 9 days to 27 days compared to 18 days for the previous year. As mentioned above, we did see a drop in sales of homes in the last several months compared to the previous year. Once we see inventories increase significantly for many months it could be an indicator that this real estate cycle has peaked. We will definitely be watching this indicator closely for the next several months. (Note that Luxury Home areas are still experiencing large inventories – avg 16.3 months (June) almost the same as a year ago (14.6 months) for homes over $1.9M – increasing putting it in more extreme Buyers’ Market territory for some of these Oahu Luxury Home neighborhoods).
For the detailed report with a breakdown by neighborhood please see: Oahu Neighborhoods Real Estate Statistics (June 2019 Data). Please note that the overall stats for Luxury Homes in Hawaii are very different from that of the Median Home Areas whereas Luxury Home inventory – increasing – is really high pushing downward pressure on prices in those neighborhoods i.e. Buyers’ Market (Median Home areas are Sellers’ Markets). On the other hand, low interest rates are creating pressure on prices in the median neighborhoods where the majority of homes are purchased through financing.
Hot Tip – If you are thinking of upgrading to a Luxury Home from a Median Home, now would be a great time to sell your current home and upgrade to a Luxury Home neighborhood. Please call me for details.
Please check out January’s newsletter’s very important article: Tax Reform vis-a-vis Hawaii Property Prices and Your Bottom Line. If you have a family, school and education should be a priority so please do not miss February’s: Best Schools on Oahau – Private vs Public & Property Values. For finding great value in Kakaako check out July’s: Kakaako Update. For more information about whether your neighborhood is in a Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market (or if you are a Buyer – the neighborhood you are interested in) please check out my previous blog/newsletters here: Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market? Absorption Rate is the Key and The Latest Buyers & Sellers Market Data on Many East Oahu Areas – Know Before Buying or Selling! (Just Updated November 2018!)
For more analysis of what all this means for Real Estate in Hawaii in 2018 – including tips and marketing strategies for both Buyers and Sellers – please sign-up (it’s free!) for Hawaii Damon Real Estate 101 Newsletter. Previous months’ newsletters can be found on the Blog section of my website: hawaiidamon.com/blog.
Lastly, please also check out this site’s easy to use Search Tool to find current listings of Hawaii Real Estate now on the market. Homes for sale in Oahu and condos for sale in Honolulu (Waikiki, Ala Moana, Kakaako, Hawaii Kai etc.) can all be found here using the Hawaii Condo Search or Hawaii Home Search tools.
Aloha!
Damon Rhys