DECEMBER 2018 OAHU HAWAII REAL ESTATE STATISTICS (NOV 2018 DATA) & ANALYSIS | BY DAMON RHYS

By Damon Rhys January 22, 2019

Dec 2018 Statistics & Analysis

Aloha!

Here are the December 2018 (November Data) Oahu Hawaii Real Estate housing statistics courtesy of the Honolulu Board of Realtors – Hawaii Housing Stats, Nov-2018. In 2018 the housing market on Oahu continues to break median sales price records on a monthly basis with overall prices still increasing unabated compared to last year (June was the only anomaly) for both homes and condos – so far (the notable exception would be the luxury home market). However, from May thru Nov of 2018 we have seen the actual numbers of sales for homes decrease – compared to the same months in 2017 – for 7 months in a row.  Following suit, condos during the last consecutive 4 month period have also seen an overall decrease of sales compared to the same period last year. Just after a long term real estate cycle peaks the first indicator is a decrease in sales of homes – currently happening – followed by an increase in inventories  -starting to happen. Once that continues prices inevitably start to decrease. However, inventories will need to increase a lot more before increasing prices start to abate. Furthemore, with the US expanding Economy it could take 2 to 3 more years for all of this to play out.  Though interest rates are still low, they are increasing and will start to play an increasing role in the housing market. With a continued shortage of median housing on Oahu, pressure on the condo market will most definitely continue. As for this months detailed stats we have, in summary:

Overall Oahu Real Estate Sales have decreased by -13.3% and -14.4% in November respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to the same month last year. The YTD (Year-To-Date) data shows an overall sales decrease of -5.6% and -2.3% respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to last year. The overall combined trend for the year thus far is trending downwards for both homes and condos (the downward trend for homes has become statistically significant – we will continue to monitor and update you accordingly).  

Median Oahu Real Estate Prices have increased by 3% and 3.7% respectively for Single Family Homes and Condos compared to the same month last year while YTD median prices have increased by 4.2% and 4.9% respectively. The overall trend is still upward (the notable exception would be the Hawaii luxury homes areas).

Oahu Real Estate DOM (Days on Market) It increased significantly from 16 to 28 days for Single Family Homes compared to last year. For Condos DOMs increased by 2 days to 22 days compared to 20 days for the previous year. As mentioned above, we did see a drop in sales of homes in the last 7 months compared to the year before. Once we see inventories increase significantly for many months it could be an indicator that this real estate cycle has peaked. We will definitely be watching this indicator closely for the next several months. (Note that Luxury Home areas are still experiencing large inventories – avg 14.2 months (November) exactly the same as a year ago for homes over $1.9M – though definitely and finally decreasing, we are still in extreme Buyers’ Market territory for some of these Oahu Luxury Home neighborhoods).

For the detailed report with a breakdown by neighborhood please see: Oahu Neighborhoods Real Estate Statistics (Oct 2018 Data). Please note that the overall stats for Luxury Homes in Hawaii are very different from that of the Median Home Areas whereas Luxury Home inventory – though coming down- is still high pushing downward pressure on prices in those neighborhoods i.e. Buyers’ Market (Median Home areas are Sellers’ Markets). On the other hand, the fear of rising interest rates are creating pressure on prices in the median neighborhoods where the majority of homes are purchased through financing.

Hot Tip – If you are thinking of upgrading to a Luxury Home from a Median Home, now would be a great time to sell your current home and upgrade to a Luxury Home neighborhood. Please call me for details.

Please check out January’s newsletter’s very important article: Tax Reform vis-a-vis Hawaii Property Prices and Your Bottom Line. If you have a family, school and education should be a priority so please do not miss February’s: Best Schools on Oahu – Private vs Public & Property Values. For finding great value in Kakaako check out July’s: Kakaako Update. For more information about whether your neighborhood is in a Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market (or if you are a Buyer – the neighborhood you are interested in) please check out my previous blog/newsletters here: Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market? Absorption Rate is the Key  and The Latest Buyers & Sellers Market Data on Many East Oahu Areas – Know Before Buying or Selling! (Just Updated November 2018!)

For more analysis of what all this means for Real Estate in Hawaii in 2018 – including tips and marketing strategies for both Buyers and Sellers – please sign-up (it’s free!) for Hawaii Damon Real Estate 101 Newsletter. Previous months’ newsletters can be found on the Blog section of my website: hawaiidamon.com/blog.

Lastly, please also check out this site’s easy to use Search Tool to find current listings of Hawaii Real Estate now on the market. Homes for sale in Oahu and condos for sale in Honolulu (Waikiki, Ala Moana, Kakaako, Hawaii Kai etc.) can all be found here using the Hawaii Condo Search or Hawaii Home Search tools.

Aloha!

Damon Rhys

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